Here are possible surprises from CE Leung’s first policy address

Population, poverty, pollution and property likely the focus.

Here’s more from Barclays:

We expect C.Y. Leung’s maiden policy speech on 16 January to focus on his road map for the next five years; population, poverty, pollution and property will likely dominate. Yet given recent political pressure on the Chief Executive, potential policy surprises should not be ruled out, in our view.

With regard to property we expect the policy focus to be on supply-side measures; no new demand-side measures are expected. Increases in residential supply via subsidised housing, industrial building conversion and ‘Hong Kong homes for Hong Kong people’ are broadly in line with consensus, in our view.

Longer-term increased land supply should be positive for mid-sized developers, who should benefit from increased availability of development land. A surprise could, however, be the compulsory resumption of developers’ agricultural land holdings in the northern New Territories as the government commits to new town development. This would hold negative implications for Henderson Land (0012.HK, UW, TP HK$41.11) in particular.

On the commercial side, we expect government commitment to increased long-term supply; a surprise could come from big box retailing at the border to address infrastructure pressure due to mainland tourism. 

We would look for some commitment to developing a second CBD in Kowloon East that would implicitly include a financial office centre at Kai Tak, raising long-term concerns for Central landlords such as Hongkong Land (HKLD.SI, EW, TP US$6.04).Poverty relief measures in the form of public rental waivers are likely to be positive for Link REIT (0823.HK, UW, TP HK$22.70).