What to expect in Hong Kong's real estate market this year

Looming new office supplies will drive up vacancies.

CBRE released its comments regarding the government land sale program.

For residential, CBRE expects prices to bottom whilst interest rates remain at high levels due to high inventories accumulated by developers.

CBRE found that developers appear to be less aggressive when bidding on government land. Meanwhile, amongst the outstanding land tenders, the real estate services firm expects the sites in Kai Tak Area 4B5 and Castle Peak Road - So Kwun Wat, Area 48, Tuen Mun to be likely awarded if the government is willing to lower the reserve price.

For industrial sites, CBRE said that the development of the Northern Metropolis will involve the large-scale relocation of economic activity from brownfield land to purpose-built industrial premises.

The planned tender for the YLTL 545 industrial site near Yuen Long InnoPark will likely be awarded, which will provide confidence to the industrial land market in the 2024 to 2025 government land sale program.
 
In addition, CBRE expects capital value for the commercial market to fall a further 10% to 15% in 2024 as new office supply continues to drive vacancy.

The pre-commitment rate and rent of upcoming or new office properties, especially those in Kai Tak and Greater Central will influence the government's decision to tender commercial land.