Hong Kong's global trade share to overtake UK by 2025

China is set to overtake the U.S. as the largest trading nation in the world by 2025, accounting for 13% of global trade, according to a new quarterly report, HSBC Trade Forecast.

Chinese trade volume is expected to grow 146% by the end of 2025, while trade is predicted to grow about four times faster than the global rate from now until 2015, the study shows.

A partner survey of international traders, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index, shows that while sentiment among China’s traders fell to a neutral level from six months earlier, nearly 80% of Chinese importers and exporters still expect stable or increased trade volumes.

Hong Kong’s role as a leading trade route between Mainland China and the rest of the world will ensure the city sustains its current share of world trade (2.9%) in 2025, ahead of the U.K., South Korea and Singapore, according to HSBC Trade Forecast.

Even as Hong Kong traders are the most cautious in Asia over the short-term, nearly 75% of those polled expect import-export volumes to stay the same or to rise in the coming half-year, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index shows.

Albert Chan, HSBC’s Head of Commercial Banking, Hong Kong, said: “Hong Kong and Mainland China are well positioned to benefit from robust growth in world trade in coming years. While short-term uncertainty has dampened confidence, the Asian region is expected to drive trade growth in the longer-term.”

Despite the current climate of economic uncertainty, world trade volumes are expected to grow 73% by 2025 and international trade activity will expand, on average, by just under $1trillion a year between now and 2015, according to research commissioned by HSBC.

Companies are being urged to find the right support to capitalise on the opportunities presented by expansion in growing and developing markets, and to mitigate the short-term risks of doing business during the next five years, by the leading bank for international business.

HSBC Trade Connections, which combines findings from both reports, was launched today at HSBC’s Trade Summit in Hamburg and is the first comprehensive exploration of the future opportunities for businesses operating internationally, combining trade data from around the world with lead indicators of world trade and macro-economic trend information.

The HSBC Trade Confidence Index – the largest survey of international traders globally – released today alongside the forecast - finds that despite a dip in global trade confidence, the majority of respondents (84 per cent) anticipate either an increase in international trade, or consistent levels of international business activity, over the next six months.

“International trade is a reflection of growing global inter-connectivity and companies will increasingly require banks with a global network and local knowledge,” said Mr Chan.

HSBC is committed to facilitate USD750 billion of world trade by 2013 through working with international businesses to open up new markets and trade opportunities, Mr Chan said.