, Hong Kong

Analysts predict a 'slightly stronger' GDP growth for Hong Kong

Forecast is pegged at 3%.

According to UBS, growth was steady at 3.3%y/y in 2Q13. Sequential growth ticked up a bit to 0.8%q/qsa from 0.2%q/qsa in 1Q13. 

GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. It is strongly correlated with the profit cycle and provides important clues about inflation and the direction of policy.

Here's more from UBS:

However, GDP has less relevance for cyclical policymaking because monetary policy is set by the US Fed according to the logic of Hong Kong’s fixed exchange rate.

A strong commitment to the fixed exchange rate also limits fiscal policy in practice.

Growth will be slightly stronger this year. But China, instead of being an important source of stabilization for Hong Kong we envisaged earlier, has turned out to be a negative surprise. We now expect Hong Kong to grow 3.0% in 2013E.
 

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