Hong Kong exports pegged to surge 15.7%

Even imports are likely to grow 29.3%.

According to DBS, exports and imports are projected to increase 15.7% YoY and 29.3% respectively, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 46.7bn. 

Growth numbers are skewed upwards because Lunar New Year fell in January last year versus February this year. That said, both export and import growth have begun trending up steadily since September 2012 (3mma), and such positive trends are expected to continue into 1Q13.

Geographically, exports numbers have improved across the board since Sep12. Export growth to China – the largest market, has recorded double-digit growth rates since Sep12.

Here's mroe from DBS:

Exports to the EU – which have contracted on a YoY basis since Nov11 – have found a bottom in Aug12 (-17.7%) and the contraction narrowed to only 2.9% in 4Q12. Exports to the US fared better than the EU with 3.0% growth in 4Q12.

Product-wise, there was a clear divergence between re-exports of foodstuffs/ consumer goods (-9.4% and -3.3% in 4Q) and raw materials/capital goods (+5.2% and +14.7% in 4Q).

This may reflect that global manufacturing activities have recovered somewhat faster than global consumer demand.