Flattish growth possibly up ahead for Macau gaming July GGR

Amid improvement in average daily table revenue.

GGR in Macau gaming for July could register flattish growth, assuming that the resth of the month will also see the significant improvement in average daily table revenue for July 7-13.

According to a research note from Barclays, average daily table revenue saw a significant improvement to HK$929mn for the period of 7-13 July.

The report noted that this was 28% higher compared with previous period of 1-6 July, which saw HK$725mn a day in table-only revenue.

If it is assumed that the rest of the month will see this HK$929mn in table revenue per day and slot revenue assumption of HK$1.2bn for the full month is added, July total gross gaming revenue could be at HK$28.6bn.

The report noted that this would imply GGR growth of +0.5% y/y, better than our previous forecast of expecting a 6% y/y decline.

Here's more from Barclays:

Mass floor was particularly busy over the weekend, and VIP volumes saw improvement as well. We believe this could potentially be due to World Cup matches becoming less frequent over the past week, aiding gaming play to return to Macau.

We look for the positive momentum to continue. Although we expect the 2Q14 results to be unexciting (we look for 8% q/q industry EBITDA decline and +16% y/y growth), we expect better GGR datapoints post the World Cup to improve investor sentiment.

We are looking for a resumption of high single-digit GGR y/y growth rates in August-December before an acceleration in 2015 from new casino openings.

We remain positive on Macau gaming stocks with our top picks remaining Melco Crown, Sands China and Galaxy. On the US-listed gaming stocks, our US analyst Felicia Hendrix favours Las Vegas Sands the most.