Hong Kong retail sector to benefit from mainland luxury market's first sign of recovery in 3 years

Find out what the other indicators are.

Bain & Co, the management consulting firm, said in a report that the mainland luxury goods market grew 4% YoY in 2016 at constant exchange rates, the first sign of revitalisation in three years.

However, when taking exchange rates into account, Maybank Kim Eng says the sales volume slipped slightly in 2016. It added a view that the China market will increase at an even faster pace this year.

Maybank Kim Eng analysts also see other encouraging indicators:

• Price of Maotai bottomed in Sep 2015, and the average price in February climbed over 40% YoY.
• The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index, which is the industry’s leading benchmark, surged over 26% from Jan-Dec 2016. It represents the price movement of 100 of the most sought-after fine wines, for which there is a strong secondary market and is calculated monthly.
• Diamond prices remained weak, but negative growth has narrowed to negative 5% when/date vs. negative 10% in early 2016.
• Swiss watch exports continued to struggle, but exports to China rose 7.8% YoY in Jan 2017, which is the fourth consecutive month of growth.
• Macau gaming revenue also bottomed in 4Q16 and has rebounded early this year