Win rate skews Macau gaming's Golden Week market share

October mass revenues could go up, meanwhile.

For the period ended October 6 (inclusive of Golden Week), it is believed that in Macau gaming, the average daily win was ~MOP1.25bn (including slot revenues), down ~30% from the same period last year.

According to a research note from Nomura, the average win rate is slightly better than the ~MOP1.2bn previewed prior to that so it would not expect material change to the monthly forecast.

Nomura said SJM, Wynn, Galaxy and MGM may have been impacted by low win rates, which pressured the average daily win.

Here’s more from Nomura:

Factoring in an expected slowdown after Golden Week (historically average daily win has declined 35-50% w-w), we estimate October GGR could be ~MOP29.5-30.5bn (or down 16-20% y-y).

We estimate October mass revenues could be up ~10-15% y-y while VIP revenues could be down ~30-35% y-y, with the VIP win rate up against a slightly tough comp.

Market share below: we would not read too much into the share shifts as SJM, Wynn, Galaxy and MGM were likely impacted by low win rates.

The mass floor smoking ban, which now also applies to premium mass areas, was implemented on October 6.

Initial checks suggest there has been no noticeable impact thus far. We note the unions have indicated they would like to eventually see a full smoking ban on casino floors.